I am posting this reply to a comment from Ross who was interested in how my trading is going.
My apologies for the lack of updates. I have not had time to do the blog anymore, unfortunately. When I was posting here every day, I spent 1-2 hours each day just writing the blog posts, doing the charts, recounting my trades, etc. Since I work a full-time job in a computer-related field, am married with two kids, and live on a horse farm, as well as following the market and trading, I just do not have the time to keep up this blog as well.
The trading itself is going fantastically well. I still trade most days, and my profitability and consistency is better than ever this past month. I am looking forward to trading with a real account -- if I do not get an investor before, I will have access to some 401K funds in May of 2010 for a loan which will allow me to start trading an ES contract or two with money in reserve.
I am trading a bit differently these days. My position holding time has gone down and my number of trades has gone up. I find that I can very often predict pretty accurately where the price is likely to go over the next 1-3 minutes, but much less accurately over the next 1-3 hours. So I set up and take 1/2, 1, 2 points on the ES, trading in lots of 10 (the maximum preset size allowed by the TOS simulator, I'd trade larger size if I could) all day long.
I've uploaded somewhat recent p/l info in case you are interested -- nicely profitable every month since I began, and July exceptionally so (unless I really bung things up tomorrow!) My account value is now $477,000 (approximagely), so not a bad job since opening at $100,000 last October.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Monday, April 6, 2009
Hiatus
I am putting this blog on a temporary hiatus while I focus on some work-related projects the next several weeks. I will continue to use the blog to make personal notes about my trading but will save them in draft mode as I do not have time to prepare the elaborate charts and notes that I provide for public consumption.
I will update the trading P&L on a regular basis, and will return to blogging for the public as soon as my time permits.
I will update the trading P&L on a regular basis, and will return to blogging for the public as soon as my time permits.
Friday, April 3, 2009
Friday 4/3/2009
Rally fizzling. . .
Another good half-day of trading. This time I hung up my sneakers when my trading started to falter after noon. A new all-time high today. Ended the day up $13,325before commissions ($6,053 after) with $311,952 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
This bull is going on WAY too long IMHO!
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market opens down a few points.
B) A rapid drop here, giving a sell signal. Glad I was not trading here cuz this signal was WRONG!
C) Strong buying breaks the downtrend line, signalling time to go long (along with $TICK).
D) Uptrend broken, sell any position here.
E) A new high, time to go long again
F) Uptrend broken, sell any long position here.
G) Downtrend broken, cover any short here (and go long if you buy after 3:00 PM, which I don't.
What worked:
Technical chart reading in conjunction with $TICK led to profitable scalp trading with the trends today. Also when I started trading poorly in the late afternoon I closed my screens (unlike yesterday) and preserved 80% of gains.
What didn't:
Believe it or not, I made a trade after 3:00 and (of course!) pissed away some of my gains on it. Fortunately I didn't repeat the mistake. It is much more difficult to be disciplined when I am making 60+ round trips a day -- obviously each scalp-style trade is not going to be as well thought out as when I make 3-4 position trades in a day.
What I will change:
1) No more new positions after 3:00. This time I mean it!!! None. Zero. Zilch. Nada!
Another good half-day of trading. This time I hung up my sneakers when my trading started to falter after noon. A new all-time high today. Ended the day up $13,325before commissions ($6,053 after) with $311,952 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
This bull is going on WAY too long IMHO!
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market opens down a few points.
B) A rapid drop here, giving a sell signal. Glad I was not trading here cuz this signal was WRONG!
C) Strong buying breaks the downtrend line, signalling time to go long (along with $TICK).
D) Uptrend broken, sell any position here.
E) A new high, time to go long again
F) Uptrend broken, sell any long position here.
G) Downtrend broken, cover any short here (and go long if you buy after 3:00 PM, which I don't.
What worked:
Technical chart reading in conjunction with $TICK led to profitable scalp trading with the trends today. Also when I started trading poorly in the late afternoon I closed my screens (unlike yesterday) and preserved 80% of gains.
What didn't:
Believe it or not, I made a trade after 3:00 and (of course!) pissed away some of my gains on it. Fortunately I didn't repeat the mistake. It is much more difficult to be disciplined when I am making 60+ round trips a day -- obviously each scalp-style trade is not going to be as well thought out as when I make 3-4 position trades in a day.
What I will change:
1) No more new positions after 3:00. This time I mean it!!! None. Zero. Zilch. Nada!
Thursday, April 2, 2009
My Goals
Right now I am trading a virtual account as if it were real money, so I can improve my trading abilities and my market "edge". So far this is going very well -- I am up more than 50% on the year and more than 200% since opening the account in October 2008.
I would like to trade a large account for a share of the profits. If that opportunity does not happen, I will trade money borrowed from my 401K once I have paid back an existing 401K loan (in several years).
I would like to trade a large account for a share of the profits. If that opportunity does not happen, I will trade money borrowed from my 401K once I have paid back an existing 401K loan (in several years).
Thursday 4/2/2009
Pamplona, Redux!
Well, I traded well MOST of the day. Sigh. A new all-time high today by the skin of my teeth. Ended the day up $6,247 before commissions ($152 after) with $305,898 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Buyers STILL keep stepping up. . .
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market gaps up big again.
B) A new high, a buy signal (but I am away from my computer and unable to trade here).
C) Another new high, wait for a pullback and start buying.
D) Here is the pullback.
E) A spike up towards the high fails. $TICK deteriorating. Time to take profits.
F) An attempt at the high fails and the market turns down. Make sure to sell here if you are long.
G) Market almost closes at the lows, then some crazy quants go on a buying spree the last couple minutes to push it up 5 points.
What worked:
Strong $TICK and buy signals means some perfect long trades in the morning. I built my account up to $313,000 by lunchtime.
What didn't:
1) I tried to go long on a "pullback" despite an early peak, an overbought tape this past couple days, and deteriorating technicals / $TICK. Took my losses with still +$3000 in the account.
2) Pissed away the rest of my profits with some poor, large scalp trades after 3:00 PM. My record after 3:00 is poor.
What I will change:
1) No more new positions after 3:00. I keep getting burned.
2) Don't allow giving back more than 50% of profits. If I get to that point, close my screens for the day.
3) NO NEW POSITIONS AFTER 3:00!!!!! Oh yeah I said that already. . .
Well, I traded well MOST of the day. Sigh. A new all-time high today by the skin of my teeth. Ended the day up $6,247 before commissions ($152 after) with $305,898 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Buyers STILL keep stepping up. . .
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market gaps up big again.
B) A new high, a buy signal (but I am away from my computer and unable to trade here).
C) Another new high, wait for a pullback and start buying.
D) Here is the pullback.
E) A spike up towards the high fails. $TICK deteriorating. Time to take profits.
F) An attempt at the high fails and the market turns down. Make sure to sell here if you are long.
G) Market almost closes at the lows, then some crazy quants go on a buying spree the last couple minutes to push it up 5 points.
What worked:
Strong $TICK and buy signals means some perfect long trades in the morning. I built my account up to $313,000 by lunchtime.
What didn't:
1) I tried to go long on a "pullback" despite an early peak, an overbought tape this past couple days, and deteriorating technicals / $TICK. Took my losses with still +$3000 in the account.
2) Pissed away the rest of my profits with some poor, large scalp trades after 3:00 PM. My record after 3:00 is poor.
What I will change:
1) No more new positions after 3:00. I keep getting burned.
2) Don't allow giving back more than 50% of profits. If I get to that point, close my screens for the day.
3) NO NEW POSITIONS AFTER 3:00!!!!! Oh yeah I said that already. . .
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Wednesday 4/1/2009
Bulls respond. . .
Hole filled. A new all-time high today. Ended the day up $9,075 before commissions ($3,987 after) with $305,746 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Buyers keep stepping up. . .
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market gaps up big.
B) I buy at support at 780. Unfortunately I get shaken out for a 1/4 point gain, then the market bounces up 20 points!
C) Sellers fail to push below support, buy signal here.
D) Spike up high volume, high tick, buy signal here.
E) Consolidation "wavelets" at resistance, the inability to reject price back down strongly indicates that resistance is very likely to fail here along with repeated tries. Buy on troughs here.
F) 802.25 print indicates failure of resistance, buy on a pullback.
G) Market prices below former resistance (now support) quickly rejected, market spikes back up to support. Buy signal here.
H) Contra hour 3:00 PM -- watch out, no new highs in the past 45 minutes, take the money and run. . .
I) Market can't blow through support, buy signal for those who like to trade after 3:00 PM (I don't).
J) Market closes near the high -- lots of buyers out there today!!!
What worked:
Perfect buy signals today gave me confidence to trade around a core long.
What didn't:
I got shaken out too quickly with my long at support. If I had held that it would have been extremely profitable!
Hole filled. A new all-time high today. Ended the day up $9,075 before commissions ($3,987 after) with $305,746 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Buyers keep stepping up. . .
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market gaps up big.
B) I buy at support at 780. Unfortunately I get shaken out for a 1/4 point gain, then the market bounces up 20 points!
C) Sellers fail to push below support, buy signal here.
D) Spike up high volume, high tick, buy signal here.
E) Consolidation "wavelets" at resistance, the inability to reject price back down strongly indicates that resistance is very likely to fail here along with repeated tries. Buy on troughs here.
F) 802.25 print indicates failure of resistance, buy on a pullback.
G) Market prices below former resistance (now support) quickly rejected, market spikes back up to support. Buy signal here.
H) Contra hour 3:00 PM -- watch out, no new highs in the past 45 minutes, take the money and run. . .
I) Market can't blow through support, buy signal for those who like to trade after 3:00 PM (I don't).
J) Market closes near the high -- lots of buyers out there today!!!
What worked:
Perfect buy signals today gave me confidence to trade around a core long.
What didn't:
I got shaken out too quickly with my long at support. If I had held that it would have been extremely profitable!
March 2009 Report
Closed out March at 301,759, up $36,157.50 (+13.61%) on the month and $101,618 (+50.77%) year to date for 2009.
Here is a chart of results in my virtual account:
Here is a chart of results in my virtual account:
| Month | Closing $ | % change |
| October 2008 | $131,034 | +31.03% |
| November 2008 | $173,646 | +32.52% |
| December 2008 | $200,141 | +15.26% |
| January 2009 | $240,250 | +20.04% |
| February 2009 | $265,601 | +10.55% |
| March 2009 | $301,759 | +13.61% |
Tuesday 3/31/2009
Bulls respond. . .
I'm most of the way out of the hole I dug last Wednesday. Ended the day up $9,075 before commissions with $301,759 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Buyers keep stepping up. . .
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market gaps up 5ish. I don't go for a gapfill as that play has been performing poorly this past couple weeks.
B) Spike up to new highs on killer $TICK, a perfect buy signal
C) Consolidation "wavelets" scream buy here. . .
D) A ramp up to another new high says buy. . .
E) More consolidation "wavelets" right at resistance tell us resistance is very likely to fail -- a great signal to buy in the troughs
F) Market is now past resistance, wait for a pullback and buy
G) Former resistance is now support
H) Market can't rally meaningfully from 2:45 to 2:55 indicating a big warning flag going into contra hour.
I) Heavy institutional selling, rally collapses, sell, sell, sell! Market closes near the day's lows.
What worked:
The buy signals ($TICK over 1000, spiking to new highs, consolidation pattern) worked perfectly to signal developing a core long position that I traded around for a nice profit. Another consolidation pattern at important resistance at 800 gave the tell that resistance would fail, providing another opportunity to make money.
What didn't:
Got "Cute" putting on trades in the bungie bouncing the last 10 minutes and gave back $600 in a few seconds. Better off just staying out of the market when it is bouncing up and down, or else put on tiny positions. . .
I'm most of the way out of the hole I dug last Wednesday. Ended the day up $9,075 before commissions with $301,759 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Buyers keep stepping up. . .
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market gaps up 5ish. I don't go for a gapfill as that play has been performing poorly this past couple weeks.
B) Spike up to new highs on killer $TICK, a perfect buy signal
C) Consolidation "wavelets" scream buy here. . .
D) A ramp up to another new high says buy. . .
E) More consolidation "wavelets" right at resistance tell us resistance is very likely to fail -- a great signal to buy in the troughs
F) Market is now past resistance, wait for a pullback and buy
G) Former resistance is now support
H) Market can't rally meaningfully from 2:45 to 2:55 indicating a big warning flag going into contra hour.
I) Heavy institutional selling, rally collapses, sell, sell, sell! Market closes near the day's lows.
What worked:
The buy signals ($TICK over 1000, spiking to new highs, consolidation pattern) worked perfectly to signal developing a core long position that I traded around for a nice profit. Another consolidation pattern at important resistance at 800 gave the tell that resistance would fail, providing another opportunity to make money.
What didn't:
Got "Cute" putting on trades in the bungie bouncing the last 10 minutes and gave back $600 in a few seconds. Better off just staying out of the market when it is bouncing up and down, or else put on tiny positions. . .
Monday 3/30/09
Bear Charge!
A nice day of trading for me. Ended the day up $5,312 before commissions with $295,421 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Turning down now?
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Big gap down
B) Consolidation - a perfect indication to go short.
C) 6 point reversal gives a signal to sell (short) here.
D) Market fails to rally above 786.5 over an extended period of time, a good opportunity to short here.
E) 3PM Contra-hour - the market reverses here.
F) Market closes up 10 points off the lows.
What worked:
Position trade using gap down and further weakness to initiate a short position. Signals like a consolidation pattern provided a further indication and opportunity for shorting.
What didn't:
Gave some money back during the contra hour -- probably best to avoid any new trend positions after 3 PM.
A nice day of trading for me. Ended the day up $5,312 before commissions with $295,421 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Turning down now?
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Big gap down
B) Consolidation - a perfect indication to go short.
C) 6 point reversal gives a signal to sell (short) here.
D) Market fails to rally above 786.5 over an extended period of time, a good opportunity to short here.
E) 3PM Contra-hour - the market reverses here.
F) Market closes up 10 points off the lows.
What worked:
Position trade using gap down and further weakness to initiate a short position. Signals like a consolidation pattern provided a further indication and opportunity for shorting.
What didn't:
Gave some money back during the contra hour -- probably best to avoid any new trend positions after 3 PM.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Friday 3/27/2009
Indecisive Market
Back on Track. Ended the day up $4,537 before commissions with $292,789 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market opens down 15ish. I do not try a gapfill here because the market is very overbought.
B) Market tries to break through resistance at 720 but fails repeatedly.
C) Bounces off newfound support at 710ish.
D) Spiked down off resistance.
E) Bounces off support again!
F) Closes 1/2 way between support and resistance.
What worked:
Decent scalp trading using $TICK indicator and buying or selling volume / momentum.
What didn't:
Should have paid better attention to potential multiday support / resistance at 710 / 720.
Back on Track. Ended the day up $4,537 before commissions with $292,789 in the virtual account.
You can download my updated P&L excel spreadsheet here.
3 Month Chart of /ESM9
Intraday Chart of /ESH9
A) Market opens down 15ish. I do not try a gapfill here because the market is very overbought.
B) Market tries to break through resistance at 720 but fails repeatedly.
C) Bounces off newfound support at 710ish.
D) Spiked down off resistance.
E) Bounces off support again!
F) Closes 1/2 way between support and resistance.
What worked:
Decent scalp trading using $TICK indicator and buying or selling volume / momentum.
What didn't:
Should have paid better attention to potential multiday support / resistance at 710 / 720.
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